In July 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) and China began laying the groundwork for studies to better understand the origins of SARS-CoV-2. Terms of Reference (TORs) were agreed upon that defined a phased approach, the scope of studies, the main guiding principles and expected deliverables. The TORs envisaged an initial Phase 1. A joint team of international experts comprised 17 Chinese and 17 experts from other countries was assembled. Following initial online meetings, a joint study was conducted over a 28-day period from 14 January to 10 February 2021 in the city of Wuhan, People’s Republic of China.
On March 30, 2021 the WHO released the results of the study to the public: WHO-convened Global Study of Origins of SARS-CoV-2: China Part. A copy of the study can be accessed here: https://excelsioradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/WHO-convened-global-study-of-origins-of-SARS-CoV-2-China-Part-joint-report.pdf.
The joint international team examined four scenarios for introduction:
• direct zoonotic transmission to humans (spillover);
• introduction through an intermediate host followed by spillover;
• introduction through the (cold) food chain;
• introduction through a laboratory incident.
The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
• introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.
The study elicited a fair amount of criticism particularly with respect to was perceived to be the assessment of the likelihood of each of the possible pathways of transmission of the virus. Interestingly, the WHO voiced a concern.
After the co-leads of the international team, Dr. Peter Ben Embarek and Professor Liang Wannian, presented their key findings WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus presented his closing remarks:
Thank you, Dr Peter Ben Embarek, Professor Liang and the whole team for sharing your report and presenting your findings.
I welcome your report, which advances our understanding in important ways.
It also raises further questions that will need to be addressed by further studies, as the team itself notes in the report.
As Member States have heard, the report presents a comprehensive review of available data, suggesting that there was unrecognized transmission in December 2019, and possibly earlier.
The team reports that the first detected case had symptom onset on the 8th of December 2019. But to understand the earliest cases, scientists would benefit from full access to data including biological samples from at least September 2019.
In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing.
I welcome the recommendations for further studies to understand the earliest human cases and clusters, to trace the animals sold at markets in and around Wuhan, and to better understand the range of potential animal hosts and intermediaries.
The role of animal markets is still unclear.
The team has confirmed that there was widespread contamination with SARS-CoV-2 in the Huanan market in Wuhan, but could not determine the source of this contamination.
Again, I welcome the recommendations for further research, including a full analysis of the trade in animals and products in markets across Wuhan, particularly those linked to early human cases.
I concur with the team’s conclusion that farmers, suppliers and their contacts will need to be interviewed.
The team also addressed the possibility that the virus was introduced to humans through the food chain.
Further study will be important to identify what role farmed wild animals may have played in introducing the virus to markets in Wuhan and beyond.
The team also visited several laboratories in Wuhan and considered the possibility that the virus entered the human population as a result of a laboratory incident.
However, I do not believe that this assessment was extensive enough.
Further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions.
Although the team has concluded that a laboratory leak is the least likely hypothesis, this requires further investigation, potentially with additional missions involving specialist experts, which I am ready to deploy.
We will keep you informed as plans progress, and as always, we very much welcome your input.
Let me say clearly that as far as WHO is concerned all hypotheses remain on the table.
This report is a very important beginning, but it is not the end. We have not yet found the source of the virus, and we must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.
Finding the origin of a virus takes time and we owe it to the world to find the source so we can collectively take steps to reduce the risk of this happening again. No single research trip can provide all the answers.
It is clear that we need more research across a range of areas, which will entail further field visits.
Before I conclude I want to express my thanks to the experts from around the world and China who participated in the report, and look forward to continuing this important work.
A copy of Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ closing remarks can be found here: https://excelsioradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/WHO-Director-Generals-remarks-at-the-Member-State-Briefing-on-the-report-of-the-international-team-studying-the-origins-of-SARS-CoV-2.pdf.
On March 30, 2021, the United States of America, Australia, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Israel, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the Republic of Korea, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom released a joint statement expressing their shared concerns regarding study. The joint statement reads in part:
The mission of the WHO is critical to advancing global health and health security, and we fully support its experts and staff and recognize their tireless work to bring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, including understanding how the pandemic started and spread. With such an important mandate, it is equally essential that we voice our shared concerns that the international expert study on the source of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was significantly delayed and lacked access to complete, original data and samples. Scientific missions like these should be able to do their work under conditions that produce independent and objective recommendations and findings. We share these concerns not only for the benefit of learning all we can about the origins of this pandemic, but also to lay a pathway to a timely, transparent, evidence-based process for the next phase of this study as well as for the next health crises.
The full text of the joint statement can be found here: https://excelsioradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Joint-Statement-on-the-WHO-Convened-COVID-19-Origins-Study-United-States-Department-of-State.pdf.
The European Union also issued a statement on March 30th voicing its concerns with the study. The EU’s full statement can be found here: https://excelsioradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/EU-Statement-on-the-WHO-led-COVID-19-origins-study-European-External-Action-Service.pdf.
The full text of the joint statement can be found here: https://excelsioradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Joint-Statement-on-the-WHO-Convened-COVID-19-Origins-Study-United-States-Department-of-State.pdf.
On March 30th, the European Union also issued a statement voicing its concerns with the study. The EU’s full statement can be found here: https://excelsioradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/EU-Statement-on-the-WHO-led-COVID-19-origins-study-European-External-Action-Service.pdf.